Monday, June 11, 2007

6/11/07 - The Dynamic of a HU session (Gone Bad)

Well, I am still running downright awful, but I have decided that is not a good enough reason for me to not have a huge month. Up a measly (in terms of normal bb/100) 22k at this month on the month, I would still like to have another 60-70k month. I can do it, but I need to change one thing around:

1) No more HU at NL5000.
-It's not that I'm not +EV, I just can't handle the swings. Well, I can, but right now I am trying to accumulate funds to pay back my dad for taxes from last year, and also I want about 100k or so to invest in real estate. So, in the last couple months, I haven't been withdrawing, because I needed about 200k spread out along all the sites, but now I need to get some money out, which means I need to minimize variance, and that means no more 5k HU.

Now, I played a HU session on PokerStars yesterday against Meatcity, who IMO isn't really that strong of a player, but makes good calls and pulls them out of his ass sometimes. He is also very aggro and likes to c/r dry and low, low, high flops. I will post the big hands and talk about how they changed my view of him and the flow of the match. We were on two tables. For this blog's purpose, I will post, in order, every hand where the pot was $2k or more (50bb each) or if some interesting hand comes up.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (BB): $2,020.00
SB: $1,980.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 6 8 (2 Players)
SB raises to $60.00, Hero calls $40.00

Flop: ($120) 7 5 T (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB bets $120.00, Hero raises to $380.00, SB calls $260.00

Turn: ($880) Q (2 Players)
Hero bets $620.00, SB calls $620.00

River: ($2120) 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB checks

Pot Size: $2,120.00 ($1 Rake)

SB had T 8 (two pair, Tens and Sevens) and WON (+$1,059.00)
Hero had 6 8 (a pair of Sevens) and LOST (-$1,060.00)


So, this hand tells me he is basically going to give me no credit unless I make it absolutely certain that I have a hand. For example, if I had pushed the river for a 1/3 PSB, I "couldn't" be bluffing since he is "committed", and he would've folded. This was the three overall hand we played, and I already had no credit. Great.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

BB: $2,395.50
Hero (SB): $2,846.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt T T (2 Players)
Hero raises to $60.00, BB raises to $250.00, Hero calls $190.00

Flop: ($500) T 4 A (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($500) 9 (2 Players)
BB bets $420.00, Hero raises to $900.00, BB raises all-in to $2,145.50, Hero calls $1,245.50

River: ($4791) 8 (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $4,791.00 ($1 Rake)

BB had A A (three of a kind, Aces) and WON (+$2,394.50)
Hero had T T and LOST (-$2,395.50)


Standard. Flop the second nuts and lose HU.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

BB: $3,293.00
Hero (SB): $2,070.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt K 9 (2 Players)
Hero raises to $60.00, BB calls $40.00

Flop: ($120) 3 K 4 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $100.00, BB calls $100.00

Turn: ($320) J (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $240.00, BB calls $240.00

River: ($800) 5 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $580.00, BB calls $580.00

Pot Size: $1,960.00 ($1 Rake)

BB had 6 4 and LOST (-$980.00)
Hero had K 9 (a pair of Kings) and WON (+$979.00)

On this hand I bet the flop and turn big, and put in a little 1/2 PSB value bet on the river. I often will pot this river but at this point I thought his most likely hand was a 56 type hand, but unfortunately that includes 35 and 45, so I thought a full pot would shift his calling range away from hands I beat to hands I lost to too much.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (BB): $2,884.00
SB: $2,469.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q K (2 Players)
SB raises to $60.00, Hero raises to $220.00, SB calls $160.00

Flop: ($440) 7 9 A (2 Players)
Hero bets $300.00, SB calls $300.00

Turn: ($1040) 7 (2 Players)
Hero bets $720.00, SB folds

Pot Size: $1,760.00 ($1 Rake)

Here I make a gutsy two barrel. I really like this play because he is calling me light on the flop, but on the turn my range shrinks entirely to an ace or seven. If he doesn't think I am capable of bluffing here, he MUST fold everything else, and shoving is just dumb. If he called I would shove the river because my range would then narrow to big aces, a seven, (and a bluff).

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (BB): $3,282.00
SB: $2,119.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 8 8 (2 Players)
SB raises to $60.00, Hero raises to $220.00, SB calls $160.00

Flop: ($440) Q 6 Q (2 Players)
Hero bets $320.00, SB calls $320.00

Turn: ($1080) 5 (2 Players)
Hero bets $600.00, SB calls $600.00

River: ($2280) 3 (2 Players)
Hero bets all-in for $2,142.00, SB calls all-in for $979.00
Uncalled bet of $1,163.00 returned to Hero

Pot Size: $4,238.00 ($1 Rake)

SB had Q T (three of a kind, Queens) and WON (+$2,118.00)
Hero had 8 8 (two pair, Queens and Eights) and LOST (-$2,119.00)

I stack myself on a questionable play. I thought that at the time he would call me with a six, but in hindsight this is a bad bet for a few reasons. 1) He will never bluff the river so I can c/f 2) If my read is off and he won't call with a six I beat nothing when called and 3) The board is so dry he can slowplay a queen or say f it and just grit and call off his stack with TT or something. Looking over this hand c/f on the river is correct, but the rest of the hand is good (He called with Ax once on a flop like this in a 3bet pot).

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

BB: $4,592.00
Hero (SB): $2,378.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 8 7 (2 Players)
Hero raises to $60.00, BB raises to $220.00, Hero calls $160.00

Flop: ($440) 4 6 5 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($440) 3 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $320.00, BB calls $320.00

River: ($1080) 5 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets all-in for $1,838.00, BB calls $1,838.00

Pot Size: $4,756.00 ($1 Rake)

BB had 9 7 and LOST (-$2,378.00)
Hero had 8 7 (a straight, Four to Eight) and WON (+$2,377.00)

Here I get kind of lucky, and the hand itself is standard. I have seen him slowplay a big hand before (the AAA vs TTT hand) in a 3bet pot so I check back. Then I slowplay the turn by calling because his range is very wide and I don't want to blow him off his hand. Then I shove the river for about 2x the pot and hope that he finds a call with an overpair or whatever. I put this hand in because it was important for future ones.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

BB: $2,154.00
Hero (SB): $4,815.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt T 9 (2 Players)
Hero raises to $60.00, BB raises to $220.00, Hero calls $160.00

Flop: ($440) 4 5 T (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $320.00, BB raises all-in to $1,934.00, Hero calls $1,614.00

Turn: ($4308) 2 (2 Players - 1 All-In)

River: ($4308) 7 (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $4,308.00 ($1 Rake)

BB had J A (high card Ace) and LOST (-$2,154.00)
Hero had T 9 (a pair of Tens) and WON (+$2,153.00)

I bet the flop in this hand because he has seen me slowplay a flopped set and a flopped straight in 3bet pots, so his read on me has to be that I slowplay a hand I like. When I bet this dry board, chances are I don't have much (due to the board itself and his read). I get him to shove with A hi and take it down.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

BB: $3,299.50
Hero (SB): $3,820.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt A 5 (2 Players)
Hero raises to $60.00, BB raises to $250.00, Hero calls $190.00

Flop: ($500) T 2 2 (2 Players)
BB bets $420.00, Hero calls $420.00

Turn: ($1340) 4 (2 Players)
BB bets $720.00, Hero calls $720.00

River: ($2780) A (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets all-in for $2,430.50, BB folds

Pot Size: $5,210.50 ($1 Rake)

This was one of those hands where I am shocked he folded but I think the ace ruined my action on the river. The way it went down he could put me on AdXx and I feel that is what happened.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

BB: $1,990.00
Hero (SB): $5,219.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt T T (2 Players)
Hero raises to $60.00, BB raises to $240.00, Hero calls $180.00

Flop: ($480) T 6 K (2 Players)
BB bets $320.00, Hero calls $320.00

Turn: ($1120) 2 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($1120) 2 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $550.00, BB calls $550.00

Pot Size: $2,220.00 ($1 Rake)

BB had A J and LOST (-$1,110.00)
Hero had T T (a full house, Tens full of Deuces) and WON (+$1,109.00)

I like the way I played this hand. Something that people lose sight of it maximizing value regardless of your hand. I was talking to a friend about a week ago and I played a huge hand very slowly even though I was deep with an opponent because I thought he had nothing. The same thing applies for this hand. I go back to slowplaying on the flop now that he has seen me bet/call and slowplay good hands, so I can have a big hand here or a float or a pot control marginal holding. On the turn I can't really see him being strong, so I check back. On the river, he is most likely extremely weak, so I just make about a 4/10 psb. This will get value out of his really weak holdings, and maybe confuse him into CRAI with nothing or a king or something. The point is, just because I had a full house doesn't mean I suddenly went psycho and auto tried to get every cent into the pot. When you have a huge hand you still need to figure out what the other guy's range is, and how to maximize value VS THAT RANGE.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (BB): $6,298.50
SB: $2,030.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt J T (2 Players)
SB raises to $60.00, Hero calls $40.00

Flop: ($120) 5 8 T (2 Players)
Hero bets $100.00, SB raises to $300.00, Hero raises to $850.00, SB raises all-in to $1,970.00, Hero calls $1,120.00

Turn: ($4060) 3 (2 Players - 1 All-In)

River: ($4060) 7 (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $4,060.00 ($1 Rake)

SB had 9 J (a straight, Seven to Jack) and WON (+$2,029.00)
Hero had J T (a pair of Tens) and LOST (-$2,030.00)

Standard/I can't win ahead/behind/flipping mantra.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

BB: $5,154.00
Hero (SB): $3,168.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q 3 (2 Players)
Hero raises to $60.00, BB calls $40.00

Flop: ($120) J 8 Q (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $100.00, BB raises to $300.00, Hero calls $200.00

Turn: ($720) 5 (2 Players)
BB bets $620.00, Hero calls $620.00

River: ($1960) A (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Pot Size: $1,960.00 ($1 Rake)

BB had A 9 (a pair of Aces) and WON (+$979.00)
Hero had Q 3 and LOST (-$980.00)

This hand really hurt. I make a good play while he draws to a 3 outer, putting in half a buyin, then gets exactly 0 dollars in while ahead. Preflop is usually a fold for me, but against loose opponents, I like to give off the perception that I am loosening up as well. That means trying to be aggro preflop in terms of not folding every hand in or out of position. I had been card dead recently, so I was folding a lot on two tables. Against this player, he will tighten up if he sees you are nitting it up, so I started opening more to hope that he will think I am loosening up and was just card dead the last 5 minutes. On the river, I almost turned my hand into a bluff and shoved, but I wasn't sure if he would fold 2 pair. I didn't think he would, so I checked and a pair of aces laughed in my face.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

BB: $7,118.00
Hero (SB): $1,970.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 6 7 (2 Players)
Hero raises to $60.00, BB calls $40.00

Flop: ($120) 4 2 T (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $100.00, BB raises to $300.00, Hero calls $200.00

Turn: ($720) K (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $480.00, BB calls $480.00

River: ($1680) 6 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets all-in for $1,130.00, BB calls $1,130.00

Pot Size: $3,940.00 ($1 Rake)

BB had 8 8 (a pair of Eights) and WON (+$1,969.00)
Hero had 6 7 (a pair of Sixes) and LOST (-$1,970.00)

This was an interesting hand. He likes to c/r those crappy flops, so I know he isn't that strong here necessarily. On the turn, I bet, which means my range is a ten, a king that floated, and any 2 pairs or sets, and jj/qq I guess too. Now, on the river, my range is no longer a bare ten or jj/qq, so it changes to a king, 2 pr, set, bluff. If he doesn't give me credit for any big hands EVER, then he should call. A few reasons why I bluffed: 1) I haven't been calling his check raises light and 2) The river is basically a 1/2 PSB. Remember we saw before him call with a really marginal hand with not much left on the river so he doesn't need to be trapping here. I thought it was a decent bluff, but I guess I could be wrong. I'm not sure if his call was good or not, but I know he just isn't going to give me credit.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (BB): $7,116.50
SB: $2,049.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9 J (2 Players)
SB raises to $60.00, Hero raises to $220.00, SB calls $160.00

Flop: ($440) K 8 K (2 Players)
Hero bets $285.00, SB calls $285.00

Turn: ($1010) 9 (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB checks

River: ($1010) K (2 Players)
Hero bets $400.00, SB calls $400.00

Pot Size: $1,810.00 ($1 Rake)

SB had 5 A and LOST (-$905.00)
Hero had 9 J (a full house, Kings full of Nines) and WON (+$904.00)

Standard

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

BB: $9,365.00
Hero (SB): $2,069.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt K 8 (2 Players)
Hero raises to $60.00, BB calls $40.00

Flop: ($120) T 8 3 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $100.00, BB raises to $300.00, Hero calls $200.00

Turn: ($720) K (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $540.00, BB raises all-in to $9,005.00, Hero calls all-in for $1,169.00
Uncalled bet of $7,296.00 returned to BB

River: ($4138) J (2 Players - 2 All-In)

Pot Size: $4,138.00 ($1 Rake)

BB had A T (a pair of Tens) and LOST (-$2,069.00)
Hero had K 8 (two pair, Kings and Eights) and WON (+$2,068.00)

I called his flop c/r with a hand that had outs to improve, and I also had position, which meant I could represent a straight draw, or a flush draw. Although he really isn't giving me credit, calling on the flop is ok because he most likely isn't strong at all.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (BB): $8,218.50
SB: $1,800.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 8 J (2 Players)
SB raises to $60.00, Hero calls $40.00

Flop: ($120) 7 6 8 (2 Players)
Hero bets $100.00, SB raises to $300.00, Hero raises all-in to $8,158.50, SB calls all-in for $1,440.00
Uncalled bet of $6,418.50 returned to Hero

Turn: ($3600) A (2 Players - 2 All-In)

River: ($3600) 4 (2 Players - 2 All-In)

Pot Size: $3,600.00 ($1 Rake)

SB had T 9 (a straight, Six to Ten) and WON (+$1,799.00)
Hero had 8 J (a pair of Eights) and LOST (-$1,800.00)

It's tough when you donk into someone and they raise 100% of the time, and your play looks like a draw but you have a much stronger hand, and you really like your play, and it doesn't matter because they have the nuts.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

BB: $7,994.00
Hero (SB): $3,434.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt A Q (2 Players)
Hero raises to $60.00, BB calls $40.00

Flop: ($120) 9 T Q (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $100.00, BB calls $100.00

Turn: ($320) 6 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $240.00, BB calls $240.00

River: ($800) 5 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $560.00, BB calls $560.00

Pot Size: $1,920.00 ($1 Rake)

BB had 9 6 (two pair, Nines and Sixes) and WON (+$959.00)
Hero had A Q (a pair of Queens) and LOST (-$960.00)

You know you are running badly when you are betting for value or raising to try to get it in because you are so ahead of someone's range but you lose anyway. BTW he played this perfectly.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (BB): $6,297.50
SB: $3,718.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt J J (2 Players)
SB raises to $60.00, Hero raises to $240.00, SB calls $180.00

Flop: ($480) 2 4 9 (2 Players)
Hero bets $320.00, SB calls $320.00

Turn: ($1120) 8 (2 Players)
Hero bets $820.00, SB calls $820.00

River: ($2760) 6 (2 Players)

So here it is. The moment of truth. You have 2300 effectively left on the river, and everything has led up to this point. All the good and bad plays, all the bluffs, all the value bets, and all the timing. What are you gonna do? How is he going to react?

Let's examine checking. Checking means that he will check behind A LOT of hands. That isn't good for starters, because we have a huge hand. If we do check, is it to check/call or check/fold? Well, what hands can he really value bet if we check? Probably anything more than one pair. But, can he bluff? Sure, and we won't know. It's probably really close between check/call and check/fold. Flip a coin, etc.

Now, what about betting something like 1/2 pot. Sure he might get a nine to call, but can we really bet/fold here? I'm not sure. And, given our history, can we really be bluffing here for a 1/2 PSB? Probably not. He is smart enough to know that. Can we have a flush here and be betting 1/2 pot? Doubtful. So, it will probably look like what we actually have, which is a one pair hand. Hell, he might even fold if we do this.

What about shoving? Can we be bluffing? Yes. Can we have the flush? Yes, but we know he won't give us credit. What does this mean about his range for calling? Good things, actually. He thinks that he don't have the flush, or at least won't fold something because of the flush. If anything, to him it probably increases the chance we are bluffing. So, he will call with any bluff catchers. What do those consist of? Anything one pair or better.

So, we can check and face a really hard decision, or get him to check behind the great majority of the hands we beat, which is bad. A half pot size bet is bad because we can't really be bluffing, and his shoving will be mind boggling, and this size, given previous hands, gives him the best opportunity of figuring out what we have. So, it looks like shoving, which increases our chances of bluffing in his mind, and allows him to call with worse hands, seems like the best choice. But it's gonna be crazy either way, so close your eyes and goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

River: ($2760) 6 (2 Players)
Hero bets all-in for $4,917.50, SB calls all-in for $2,338.00
Uncalled bet of $2,579.50 returned to Hero

Pot Size: $7,436.00 ($1 Rake)

SB had 8 6 (two pair, Eights and Sixes) and WON (+$3,717.00)
Hero had J J (a pair of Jacks) and LOST (-$3,718.00)

Awesome.

Run well,
Greg